“石头剪刀布”中动力学结构及其微观机制研究


科普视频


浙江大学2014年十大学术进展


十大学术进展:以“石头剪刀布”为例的混合纳什均衡中的动力学结构及其微观机制研究




  

项目第一完成单位:实验社会科学实验室 

项目负责人:王志坚


项目简介

“石头剪刀布”博弈是非可递占优博弈的标准范式。博弈中,不存在绝对占优策略,而存在循环占优策略。演化动力学研究表明,这样的博弈结构会导致周期现象。然而,一直没有实验证据。

通过招募360名浙江大学学生参加”石头剪刀布”博弈,我们用5个参数的实验研究这类体系的动力学特征及其微观机制。我们发现,宏观层面,社会系统普遍存在持续的周期循环现象;微观层面,个体行为存在隐藏模式:在一定情况下,赢了会更多保留刚才的策略,输则更多按照”石头剪刀布”的名称顺序变动,而平的则按照“石头布剪刀”的顺序变动;在宏微观的联系上,不同激励参数下,宏观周期现象均可以被微观行为模式所解释。同时,借助于波恩大学12个参数864人的硬币配对实验数据,在博弈论历史上,我们第一次系统性地揭示了混合纳什均衡2 x 2博弈内在持续的、非均衡的运动循环,第一次给出了博弈动力学运动量(周期值)依赖于博弈支付矩阵的定量的科学证据。这表明,在最为基础的博弈中,在具有纳什均衡的博弈系统中可能普遍存在稳定的非均衡的动力学结构。

2014年底,”石头剪刀布”成果同时入选《MIT科技评论》年度最优和“BBC年度科技新闻亮点”。在过去五年中,我国共有三项成果入选《MIT科技评论》年度最优(另外两项均来自潘建伟院士团队的量子通讯领域),3项入选“BBC 年度科技亮点”(另外两项为嫦娥登月项目成果和周忠和院士团队的古生物研究成果)。社会科学领域的成果入选,在我国尚属首次。至今,该成果已成为国内外科研机构和科学研究讨论会的内容,成为欧美高校博弈论、微观经济学、优化算法理论和计算机科学领域本科教学教程的参考内容,并开始被正式发表的经济学和物理学类期刊论文引用。国内外1000多家新闻媒体以及包括自然哲学、数学、心理学和物理学在内的专业网站和公众媒体报道或转载了该研究。硬币配对的论文也因其重要科学贡献入选《Advances in Engineering》。

项目团队

  这是一个由经济学和物理学学者组成的跨学科研究团队。团队成员包括浙江大学实验社会科学实验室王志坚研究员、实验室主任(兼)许彬教授,中国科学院理论物理研究所周海军研究员和浙江大学竺可桢学院学生王爽。

  


(图片设计:田吟雪)




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How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-04-26)   Neil E. Farber

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Rock-Paper-Scissors Strategy Could Be More Than Mere Child's Play  

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Math Digest On Media Coverage of Math

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Study reveals a way to improve chances of winning at rock-paper-scissors

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News Picks : How to take advantage of a common rock-paper-scissors strategy

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How to win rock-paper-scissors (almost) every time

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How to game rock-paper-scissors

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Science Has Finally Figured Out How to Win Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Revealed: How to win at rock-paper-scissors

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Researchers explain how to win the game rock-paper-scissors

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Win rock-paper-scissors game every time with this mathematical formula

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This Is A Scientifically-Proven Rock-Paper-Scissors Winning Strategy (But If Your Opponent Uses It Too, It's A Draw)

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Cognitive Biases In Rock-Paper-Scissors

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How to use science to win at rock-paper-scissors

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Want To Win Rock, Paper, Scissors Forever?

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Study reveals best strategy for winning at rock-paper-scissors

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Revealed: How to win at rock-paper-scissors

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How to win at rock-paper-scissors

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The science behind Rock-Paper-Scissors: Mathematicians reveal hidden pattern in the game that could

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Psychologists find winning strategy for rock-paper-scissors

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Scientists crack rock, paper, scissors

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Research suggests you can master rock-paper-scissors with this winning formula

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Scientists Reveal A Failproof Strategy To Win Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Out: Formula to win Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Rock-Paper-Scissors Study Reveals Sneaky Formula For Winning The Game

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The secret to winning at rock-paper-scissors

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New Study Examines Why You Suck at Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Chinese Scientists Discover Winning Rock-Paper-Scissors Strategy

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Scientists reveal how to win rock, paper, scissors

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Chinese professor discovers how to always win rock-paper-scissors

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How to Win Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Mathematicians Have Determined How to Win Rock-Paper-Scissors Every Time

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Rock Paper Scissors Study Uncovers Scientific Formula For Winning The Game/

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Chinese University Develops Fail-Proof Rock-Paper-Scissors Strategy

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Here’s How to Win Your Next Crucial Rock, Paper, Scissors Battle

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Science Tells You How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Nerd alert: How to win at rock-paper-scissors

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The Psychology Of Rock, Paper, Scissors

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นักคณิตศาสตร์จีนพบแบบแผนพฤติกรรมในการเล่นเกมส์เป่าหยิงฉุบ

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Here is How To Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Rock-paper-scissors

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Scientific research reveals how to win at Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Rock Paper Scissors and Game Theory

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Rock/Paper/Scissors/Equations

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Rock, Paper, Scissors: Winning formula cracked, but robot beats everyone

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How to Win at Rock Paper Scissors

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Scientists Reveal Secrets Behind Winning Rock-Paper-Scissors Game

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Secrets Behind Winning 'Rock-Paper-Scissors' Game Revealed

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Robot Beats Winning Formula of Rock, Paper, Scissors

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Megfejtették, hogyan lehet győzni Kő-papír-ollóban

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Rockpaperscissors study reveals sneaky formula for winning the game

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Microeconomics 2014

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The Philosophy Of Rock Paper Scissors

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THAT’S WHY SHELDON INVENTED ROCK /PAPER /SCISSORS/LIZARD/SPOCK

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The 10 quirkiest physics stories of 2014

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How to Win At Rock Paper ScissorsHow to Win At Rock Paper Scissors

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A Chinese Researcher Discovered That If You Know

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The 10 quirkiest physics stories of 2014

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How to succeed at Rock-Paper-Scissors

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Major Breakthrough in Fundamental Research into "Rock-Paper-Scissors" Game Theory Selected as “Science News Highlights of 2014” by BBC News and Best of 2014 by MIT Technology Review

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Social cycling and conditional responses in the Rock-Paper-Scissors game

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The Scientific Way To Win At Rock Paper Scissors(2015-01-26)

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Mathematical Strategies to Help Improve the Chances of Winning at Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-26)

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Use These Tips And Never Lose At Rock Paper Scissors Again(2015-01-26)

http://io9.com/use-these-tips-and-never-lose-at-rock-paper-scissors-ag-1681824570

Let An Attractive British Redhead Teach You How To Always Win At Rock Paper Scissors Again(2015-01-26)

http://www.brobible.com/life/article/win-at-rock-paper-scissors/

There is an algorithm to follow and win rock-paper-scissors(2015-01-26)

http://pcbheaven.com/opendir/index.php?show=95304272pb95307426dw6eb1f515

Winning at Rock Paper Scissors(2015-01-26)

http://www.us101country.com/onair/gator-and-styckman-46135/winning-at-rock-paper-scissors-13189255/

How To Never Lose A Game Of Rock Paper Scissors Again(2015-01-27)

http://www.pixable.com/article/how-to-rock-paper-scissors-85263

Rock-Paper-Scissors: Paper wins(2015-01-27)

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2015-01/27/content_19417709.htm

Chinese scientists create winning theory on Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-27)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015-01/27/content_19415682.htm

Chinese scientists create winning theory on Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-27)

http://www.chinanationalnews.com/index.php/sid/229721759

Chinese scientists create winning theory on Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-27)

http://www.china.org.cn/world/2015-01/27/content_34663490.htm

Chinese scientists create winning theory on Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-27)

http://english.eastday.com/auto/eastday/world/u1ai8474173.html

 

Chinese scientists create winning theory on Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-27)

http://en.newhub.shafaqna.com/CN/246876-Chinese-scientists-create-winning-theory-on-Rock-Paper-Scissors

How to Win at Rock Paper Scissors(2015-01-27)

http://filmmakeriq.com/2015/01/how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors/

Chinese scientists create winning theory on Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-27)

http://defence.pk/threads/chinese-scientists-create-winning-theory-on-rock-paper-scissors.355825/

How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-28)

http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2015/01/how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors.html

How to Win at Rock, Paper, Scissors Almost All the Time, Thanks to This Life Hack(2015-01-28)

http://www.bustle.com/articles/60977-how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors-almost-all-the-time-thanks-to-this-life-hack

Rock-Paper-Scissors: Paper wins(2015-01-28)

http://www.topix.com/colleges/massachusetts-institute-of-technology/2015/01/rock-paper-scissors-paper-wins

There’s a Science to Winning Rock, Paper, Scissors(2015-01-29)

http://www.popularmechanics.com/how-to/blog/how-to-win-rock-paper-scissors

How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-01-29)

http://mentalfloss.com/article/61380/how-win-rock-paper-scissors

Learn how to become a rock-paper-scissors champion using science(2015-01-29)

http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/learn-how-to-become-a-rock-paper-scissors-champion-using-science-660125.html

Learn how to become a rock-paper-scissors champion using science(2015-01-29)

http://www.irishexaminer.com/examviral/science-world/learn-how-to-become-a-rock-paper-scissors-champion-using-science-309657.html

This is how you win at rock-paper-scissors(2015-01-29)

http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/this-is-how-you-win-at-rockpaperscissors--lyx01qI9jg

Learn how to become a rock-paper-scissors champion using science(2015-01-29)

http://home.bt.com/science-news/learn-how-to-become-a-rock-paper-scissors-champion-using-science-11363958463914

LEARN HOW TO BECOME A ROCK-PAPER-SCISSORS CHAMPION USING SCIENCE(2015-01-29)

http://www.eveningecho.ie/viral/2015/01/29/learn-how-to-become-a-rock-paper-scissors-champion-using-science/

How to win at rock paper scissors(2015-01-30)

http://knowmore.washingtonpost.com/2015/01/30/how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors/

Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors Every Time, With Math(2015-02-03)

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/game-theory-rock-paper-scissors

Rock Paper Scissors: Win Every Time(2015-02-05)

http://www.united-academics.org/magazine/mind-brain/rock-paper-scissors-win-every-time/

What the Empirical Evidence REALLY Says about Rock, Paper, Scissors(2015-02-05)

http://www.skeptic.com/insight/what-the-empirical-evidence-really-says-about-rock-paper-scissors/

HOW TO WIN ROCK-PAPER-SCISSORS (WITH GAME THEORY)(2015-01-27)

http://www.nerdist.com/2015/01/how-to-win-rock-paper-scissors-with-game-theory/

Das ist die Sieges-Formel für Schnick-Schnack-Schnuck(2015-02-14)

http://www.bild.de/ratgeber/2015/spiele/so-gewinnt-ihr-immer-bei-schnick-schnack-schnuck-39682776.bild.html

What the Empirical Evidence REALLY Says about Rock, Paper, Scissors(2015-02-05)

http://portside.org/2015-02-22/what-empirical-evidence-really-says-about-rock-paper-scissors

The mathematically proven winning strategy for 14 of the most popular games(2015-05-08)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/05/08/how-to-win-any-popular-game-according-to-data-scientists/

Near-certain victory in Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-02-10)

http://ausm.org.uk/2015/02/near-certain-victory-in-rock-paper-scissors/

Mathematics » How to Win Rock-Paper-Scissors (usually)(2015-04-28)

http://fortymileview.com/mathematics-how-to-win-rock-paper-scissors-usually/

じゃんけんで勝つ方法、これでじゃんけん無敵

http://www.mentalism-learning.net/%E3%81%98%E3%82%83%E3%82%93%E3%81%91%E3%82%93%E3%81%A7%E5%8B%9D%E3%81%A4%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95

How to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors, according to a Chinese mathematician(2015-12-08)

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/12/08/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors/21280518/

HOW TO BEAT ANYONE AT ROCK-PAPER-SCISSORS(2015-12-09)

http://www.disclose.tv/forum/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors-t107885.html

The Scientific Way To Win At Rock-Paper-Scissors(2015-12-08)

http://www.newsy.com/videos/the-scientific-way-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors/

The science behind winning at ‘Rock, Paper, Scissors’(2015-11-13)

http://bgr.com/2015/11/13/rock-paper-scissors-strategy/

A Chinese Mathematician Reveals How to Beat Anyone(2015-12-09)

http://nextshark.com/how-to-win-at-rock-paper-sissors/

How to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors, according to a Chinese mathematician(2015-12-07)

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors-2015-12

How to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors,according to a Chinese mathematician(2015-12-07)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/beat-anyone-rock-paper-scissors-002424689.html

How to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors, according to a Chinese mathematician(2015-12-08)

http://1027thecoyote.com/2015/12/08/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors-according-to-a-chinese-mathematician/

Rick PermanandHow to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors, according to a Chinese mathematician(2015-12-08)

http://rickpermanand.com/2015/12/08/rick-permanandhow-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors-according-to-a-chinese-mathematician/

How to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors, according to a Chinese mathematician(2015-12-08)

http://dailyreadlist.com/article/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors-accordi-65

http://www.meekhao.com/news/rock-paper-scissors-theory

HOW TO BEAT ANYONE AT ROCK-PAPER-SCISSORS, ACCORDING TO A CHINESE MATHEMATICIAN(2015-12-07)

http://www.newsunited.com/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-news/20136044/

How to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors, according to a Chinese mathematician(2015-12-08)

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/12/08/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors/21280518/

Wie man bei Schere, Stein, Papier gewinnt(2015-12-08)


http://www.mathematik.de/ger/diverses/aktuelles/schere-stein-papier.html



Đã tìm ra phương pháp giúp bạn chiến thắng trò chơi Oẳn tù tì(2015-12-10)

http://genk.vn/kham-pha/da-tim-ra-phuong-phap-giup-ban-chien-thang-tro-choi-oan-tu-ti-20151208170334306.chn

Đã tìm ra cách giúp bạn chiến thắng trò Oẳn tù tì(2015-12-11)

http://waptai.pro/da-tim-ra-cach-giup-ban-chien-thang-tro-oan-tu-ti.html

How to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors, according to a mathematician(2015-12-17)

http://www.sciencealert.com/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors-according-to-a-chinese-mathematician

How to beat anyone at rock-paper-scissors(2015-12-21)

http://www.cafeguff.com/never-lose-at-rock-paper-scissors-again/



How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors, According to Math(2015-12-24)

http://thescienceexplorer.com/universe/how-win-rock-paper-scissors-according-math

AKO NIEKOHO PORAZIŤ V HRE KAMEŇ-PAPIER-NOŽNICE? PORADIA VáM MATEMATICI!(2015-12-31)

http://www.vedelisteze.sk/galerie/ako-niekoho-porazit-v-hre-kamen-papier-noznice-poradia-vam-matematici

One crucial method for becoming a constant winner at ’’Rock, Paper, Scissors’’



http://brightside.me/article/one-crucial-method-for-becoming-a-constant-winner-at-rock-paper-scissors-91955/

Rock-Paper-Scissors Strategy Could Be More Than Mere Child's Play



http://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/rock-paper-scissors-strategy-could-be-more-than-mere-childs-play



How To Beat Someone At Rock Paper Scissors, According To Science(2016-03-18)




http://www.bustle.com/articles/148621-how-to-beat-someone-at-rock-paper-scissors-according-to-science



石头剪刀布”国外专题视频
作者:实验社会科学实验室 发表时间:2016年1月20日星期三

A Mathematician Figured Out How To Always Win At Rock-Paper-Scissors(2014-06-11) 

http://www.businessinsider.sg/rock-paper-scissors-strategy-2014-6/#.U5-dYuOSy1X

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yy6PwbO6chc

screenshot (2016-01-20)



 

Here's How To Win At Rock-Paper-Scissors, Life (2014-05-02)

http://on.aol.co.uk/video/heres-how-to-win-at-rock-paper-scissors--life-518217410



How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors Every Time(2014-05-11) 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJNmAoSQu6k

screenshot (2016-01-20)




How To Win At Rock Paper Scissors(2014-05-27)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnRYS02tvRA

screenshot (2016-01-20)




Winning at Rock Paper Scissors - Numberphile(2015-01-26)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rudzYPHuewc

screenshot (2016-01-20)




Rock Paper LIZARDS - Numberphile(2015-01-26)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8lv2vy5vco

screenshot (2016-01-20)




Rock Paper Scissors (extra footage) (2015-01-26)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygHwBxWyI6E

screenshot (2016-01-20)




Daniel Dennett: How Life is Like a Game of Rock-Paper-Scissors (2015-02-22) video download   Daniel Dennett

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PH2OiAf-1yU

screenshot (2016-01-20)




Game Theory  by Matthew O. Jackson, Kevin Leyton-Brown, Yoav Shoham

https://class.coursera.org/gametheory-004/auth


“石头剪刀布”成为教学参考
作者:实验社会科学实验室 发表时间:2015年12月13日星期日

    “石头剪刀布”已成为欧美高校博弈论、微观经济学、优化算法理论和计算机科学领域本科教学参考内容



美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)教学参考

Course blog for INFO 2040/CS 2850/Econ 2040/SOC 2090

David Easley (Economics) and éva Tardos (Computer Science)

https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2014/09/12/applying-nash-equilibrium-to-rock-paper-and-scissors   pdf download

http://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2014/09/16/game-theory-rock-paper-scissors   pdf download

https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2015/09/08/rock-paper-scissors-and-game-theory/   pdf download

https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2015/09/21/how-to-beat-anyone-at-rock-paper-scissors/  pdf download

https://blogs.cornell.edu/info2040/2015/10/17/new-discovery-in-the-game-theory-of-rock-paper-scissors/ pdf download


美国 迪金森学院(Dickinson College)

Microeconomics 2014

http://blogs.dickinson.edu/microeconomics2014/2014/11/24/rock-paper-scissors  pdf download   



德国杜伊斯堡-埃森大学(University Duisburg-Essen)数学系讲义

Christian Clason

https://www.uni-due.de/~adf040p/skripte/Optim1Skript14.pdf  pdf download


挪威卑尔根大学(universitetet i bergen)教学参考

http://info207.b.uib.no/2014/11/25/stein-saks-papir pdf download



法国蒙彼利埃第二大学(Université de Montpellier)、法国大学科技学院(Institut Universitaire de Technologie)课程参考:

pdf download

宾夕法尼亚州立大学课程参考 pdf download

https://sites.psu.edu/siowfa15/2015/12/03/rock-paper-scissors/


“石头剪刀布”入围“浙江大学2014年度十大学术进展”扩展阅读
作者:实验社会科学实验室 发表时间:2015年4月5日星期日

一、标志性成果

1Zhijian Wang,Bin Xu,Hai-Jun Zhou(2014),Social cycling and conditional responses in the Rock-Paper-Scissors game, Nature, Scientific Reports 4, Article number: 5830

2Bin Xu, Shuang Wang, and Zhijian Wang (2014),Periodic frequencies of the cycles in 2 × 2 games: evidence from experimental economics, Eur.Phys.J.B (2014) 87:46


二、学术影响

1、被经济学、物理学等期刊论文、学位论文引用  施引论文列表  

2、成为欧美高校本科教学参考内容 教学参考

3、被包括自然哲学、数学、心理学和物理学在内的专业网站报道  学术专业协会介绍推荐

4、成为国内外科学研究讨论会的内容  科研专题讲座


三、社会影响

1、 入选《MIT科技评论》2014年度最佳

2、 入选BBC“2014年度科技新闻亮点” 

3、 数百家国际媒体报道

4、 近千家国内媒体报道 2015   2014

5、 国外专题视频

6、 中文专题音视频


四、对比参照

1、主要竞争对手的研究文献    2015    2014    2010

2、其他中国单位(2010-2014年五年间曾经入选过上述两项年度最优的)情况介绍

    

五、关于我们

1、实验室介绍

2、研究成果

3、联系方式


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